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You can find this post, and more, on my new blog here.

Last night, Dan and I went to the geek dinner Dave Winer hosted for Robert Scoble. While I've been to many parties and dinners full of geeks, this was my first "geek dinner."

There was an interesting mix of people: entrepreneurs from Web 2.0 startups, various software developers, many bloggers, and other assorted geeks.

The highlight of the evening for me was the discussion that started just before the restaurant closed. We adjourned to the parking lot to continue until it became too cold and too late (although, apparently Robert and Steve Gillmor kept it going for another hour and a half, see Geek dinner Gillmortastic).  It was a little challenging to get Steve Gillmor's entire point , although I guess Robert finally got it after we all left.

The conversation was, I think, a typical one: why Microsoft doesn't get Web 2.0 (i.e., how Google will beat Microsoft).  Steve Gillmor has some pretty strong views about the mind share that Google has regarding applications.  Yet he believes that Office will lose (or has lost) the battle.  It appears that he wants to see AJAX-enabled interfaces to everything.  All browser-based, all thin-client.

I think the major point of disagreement between Gillmor and many others in the crowd had to do with the utility of browser-based software models.  For example:

  • Gillmor wants to do all of his RSS reading on the Web.  I don't.  I prefer a model with the advantages of a smart client (rich UI and disconnected operation) that also allows me a surely Web-based interface.  Newsgator is a perfect example of this.  Both Robert and I use NewsGator in Outlook and from the Web.  I also use it from my WM5 device.  Even better, they are all synchronized.
  • Gillmor wants to write all his articles in e-mail.  He said something to the effect of "e-mail will supplant the use of Word in the next six months".  This comment nearly resulted in a wager.  I believe he is talking about a very small group of technologically-savvy early-adopters.

If Gillmor prefers Web-only, then more power to him.  And he is right, there are many like him who feel the same way.  But there are also a huge number of people (and these are not just corporate users) that prefer the installed-software model.

Google has enjoyed a great deal of popularity as an answer to Microsoft's dominance. They have a stockpile of goodwill and trust from people simply because they are not Microsoft. This is not permanent. The bigger they get, the more profitable they are (if that's possible), the more people they piss with their own kind of over-reaching, the more this is going to wane.

And Microsoft is not standing still. Certainly, they're concerned about Google (and I hope more concerned about supporting different models of user interaction than just Google). Next year is going to be a big year for Microsoft. I am not ready to count them out of this "Web 2.0" market.

Posted on Tuesday, October 25, 2005 6:49 AM Industry | Back to top

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